Yesterday (March 9) was a milestone day for Nottingham Forest midfielder and record signing Joao Carvalho, as he turned 24.
He could perhaps be forgiven for thinking his career would’ve gone down a very different route as he laced up his boots for Almeria training, where he is currently on loan.
After all, it was only two-and-a-half years ago he was signed for a Forest club-record fee of £13.2m in the hopes he would be in the Premier League now with some of his fellow Portugal U21 colleagues.
Carvalho effectively replaced Manchester United star Bruno Fernandes in the Portugal U21 set-up when Fernandes got too old, making 20 appearances and scoring six goals.
He played, captained and shone with the likes of Diogo Jota (Liverpool), Gonzalo Guedes (Valencia), Pedro Neto (Wolves), Daniel Podence (also Wolves) and Renato Sanches (Lille).
While all of those players are now in the top flights of Europe’s big five leagues, Carvalho is in the Spanish second division. So, where did things go wrong?
The blunt assessment is that Forest have failed him, or at least stalled his development. However, it wasn’t always that way.
When Carvalho signed, he was immediately thrown into the deep end by then manager Aitor Karanka and thrived in the 10 role in a 4-2-3-1.
By Christmas, Carvalho – in his first season in England – had nine G/A (three goals, six assists) and looked every bit a £13m signing.
He did appear to maybe be burning out, going on a seven game run without any goals or assists in December, but given he was 21 and in his first season abroad, a run of this nature was to be expected.
It also coincided with a notable change in Karanka’s demeanour following a 2-0 win against Ipswich Town, which we now know is due to an irreparable breakdown in relationship with CEO Ioannis Vrentzos, as per The Athletic.
After that, things started to go rapidly downhill for Carvalho.
Karanka was sacked and Simon Ireland took over as caretaker manager. Ireland dropped Carvalho for his one and only game against Reading, which Forest lost 2-0, then Martin O’Neill was hired.
From the get-go, it was clear that O’Neill didn’t rate Carvalho at all – he was benched for O’Neill’s first three games and then finally got a 20 minute run-out in his fourth, a 2-0 defeat to Birmingham City.
Then he was back to the bench for the next two fixtures, before getting another 20 minute run-out, this time in a 0-0 draw with Preston North End. He was then benched again for the following fixture.
Throughout this, the Forest fans were gradually getting more and more annoyed.
What was a promising season that was set for a play-off run was going up in smoke in front of their eyes, with results not coming and arguably their best player not playing.
Carvalho chants – regardless of whether he was playing or not – were becoming as common place as the groans to yet another poor result under O’Neill, playing diabolical football in the process.
O’Neill was undeterred in his vendetta though and Carvalho remained on the bench, getting a 37 minute run in a 2-0 loss away at Stoke City and then a 22 minute run-out against Hull City at home.
Immediately Carvalho changed the game in that Hull fixture, scoring an absolute rocket from the edge of the box that cannoned in off the post and putting Forest 1-0 up.
Carvalho’s celebration was notably muted, slowly jogging to the corner flag and making a heart symbol with his hands towards the Trent End – making it very clear he wasn’t exactly delighted, but grateful for the support he got from the fans.
Forest won that game 3-0 thanks to Carvalho’s input and in the aftermath of the game, it became very apparent just how much O’Neill and Carvalho had fallen out.
“Joao was not in the side when I arrived at the club and he has shown glimpses, in training, of that sort of ability,” O’Neill said to Nottinghamshire Live.
“He will be a miles better player when he is used to the physicality of this league.”
This, as we know, is absolutely ridiculous. Carvalho had played in all 26 of Forest’s available fixtures to Karanka, before being benched for one match by Ireland.
The only person that kept Carvalho out the side was O’Neill and the physicality aspect is a non-starter considering Carvalho had nine G/A in those 26 matches.
After the Hull game, Carvalho finally got his first start under O’Neill – after three months – in a 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa.
It seemed very much that Carvalho was solely blamed for this, as he was back to the bench for the next five games – appearing in four – and then omitted from the squad completely in a 2-0 loss to Sheffield United.
In those six games, Forest lost four, drew one and won one as their season – as feared – fell apart.
The chants for Carvalho grew louder and louder in each game and with nothing to play for, O’Neill started Carvalho for the second time – against Middlesbrough at home.
The result was the best individual display from a Forest player since relegation in 1999 and some older fans even said it was the best individual performance since the Collymore era.
Carvalho – against Tony Pulis’ overtly physical Middlesbrough side – ran the show.
He completed six dribbles and won three tackles – the game highest for both – got an assist and hit the framework. Really, he should’ve had another assist as Karim Ansarifard shamefully missed from inside the six yard box after an outside of the boot pass found him.
The assist in question was poetry in motion, with Carvalho nutmegging Paddy McNair, then dragging the ball back so deftly it sent Aden Flint on his backside, before caressing the ball as he dribbled forward, before playing it into Joe Lolley to score.
What was infuriating for Forest fans was how it came too late, with Forest unable to make the play-offs.
Carvalho started the next two games – getting an assist in one of them – and Forest won both.
He ended his debut season in English football with 12 G/A (four goals and eight assists) in 38 games, 10 off the bench, while racking up 2558 minutes.
For context of how impressive this is, Mason Mount got 13 G/A (nine goals, four assists) in 38 games for Derby County, but having played 763 minutes more – the equivalent of eight and a half matches.
Carvalho’s luck took an upturn when O’Neill was sacked and Sabri Lamouchi was hired, but it didn’t last long as he suffered a bad injury in a friendly against Alfreton Town that ruled him out for a few months.
As such, Carvalho was always playing catch-up and even under Lamouchi, things didn’t get that much better from a playing perspective.
Under Lamouchi, Forest became a very counter attacking predominant side and with Tiago Silva, the need for a 10 wasn’t that vital, with Silva performing in a similar fashion to how Filip Krovinovic performs now – essentially as a number eight in that 10 role.
There were moments for Carvalho – a goal against Derby County in the Carabao Cup and a majestic solo effort against Queens Park Rangers in the league – but he only amassed nine starts, with 14 sub appearances.
He got one assist last season, although he did play a huge part in rescuing a 2-2 draw against Middlesbrough with his set-piece delivery.
As Forest had found ways to win without Carvalho, the chants were quieter – still there, but less frequent – but then just as Carvalho started to look back to his best for the first time all season, Covid struck.
In the nine games post-restart, Carvalho played in just one, as a sub in the 3-1 win over Huddersfield Town and he missed a one-on-one.
Then last summer, it was meant to be a fresh slate for Carvalho under Lamouchi and he was seemingly making solid progress in pre-season.
He then featured in the 1-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Barnsley, but was then sent on loan to Almeria shortly afterwards.
At Almeria, he has found some form – he currently has three assists this season and the general consensus is that he is very much a fan favourite.
Much like Anthony Knockaert with Forest, it seems as if the numbers aren’t doing Carvalho’s overall contribution to the team justice and they seem very happy with how he is performing.
He also scored the winning penalty for Almeria against Osasuna to send the Segunda Division club into the quarter finals of the Copa Del Rey.
It does seem however as if Carvalho – who has had some minor injury issues this year – is in a bit of a rut at present, with Almeria manager Jose Manuel Gomes describing him recently as “a beautiful player, but not in his best moment,” as per Diario de Almeria.
What will be interesting though is if they exercise their option to buy Carvalho, which presumably hinges on whether Almeria get promoted.
At present, they are second – five points behind leaders Mallorca and one point clear of third placed Espanyol.
If they do not take the option, Carvalho would come back to what would be his fourth Forest manager in Chris Hughton and could possibly be given a chance to redeem himself.
At Brighton & Hove Albion, Hughton signed Pascal Groß – a number 10 predominantly and had great success with him in the side.
Given that Forest will perhaps have to be careful with how much they spend this summer, it isn’t inconceivable that Carvalho – if Almeria don’t sign him – could come back into the fold.
Forest also need a refresh to balance the squad again and Carvalho could play a huge part in that, rather than putting square pegs in round holes – namely Cafu as a number 10.
Also, considering Forest are struggling for goals, Carvalho’s return would be welcomed as with Forest playing on the front foot more, his input in that 10 role could work wonders.
Contrary to the notion that he is lightweight, Carvalho does do his defensive duties as well – in the 2018/19 season, he averaged 1.6 tackle attempts per game.
Currently, Krovinovic averages 2.2 tackle attempts per game, so there really isn’t that much in it from that sense – meaning that in theory, Hughton could comfortably find a way to accommodate Carvalho and keep his defensive structure.
There is no doubt that Forest have held Carvalho back given managers like O’Neill and Lamouchi had no use for him, but there could possibly be a happy ending for him with Hughton, if things fall into place.
Would you give Joao Carvalho another go at Nottingham Forest?
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