Supercomputer predicts Nottingham Forest’s Champions League fate after disastrous Brentford defeat

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Nottingham Forest’s 2-0 Premier League defeat to Brentford couldn’t have come at a worse time, with the push for Champions League football next season now hanging in the balance.

With the Premier League receiving five Champions League spots, Forest’s chances of qualifying have looked strong for months now, but Thursday’s defeat to Brentford has piled the pressure on.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
3	NewcastleNewcastle	34	19	5	10	65	44	21	62
4	Man CityManchester City	34	18	7	9	66	43	23	61
5	ChelseaChelsea	34	17	9	8	59	40	19	60
6	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	34	18	6	10	53	41	12	60
7	Aston VillaAston Villa	34	16	9	9	54	49	5	57
8	FulhamFulham	34	14	9	11	50	46	4	51

Forest fans were frustrated with Taiwo Awoniyi as the limp Reds attack couldn’t prevent a third league defeat in five, dropping Nuno Espirito Santo’s side out of the Champions League spots for the first time since early December.

The worry around the City Ground will be growing as we enter the final four games of the season, and the latest supercomputer prediction for the Champions League places won’t have helped.

Nottingham Forest’s Champions League chances take hit

Back in February, Forest were predicted to finish fourth and see off the threat of Chelsea and Bournemouth for Champions League football, with Aston Villa and Newcastle United barely in the picture.

This changed as of mid-April, with Forest expected to finish fifth based on Opta stats, but their supercomputer is beginning to slowly doubt the Reds’ chances.

After the Brentford defeat, the current percentage chance of a top-five finish is as follows:

• Man City – 94.80%
• Newcastle United – 83.92%
• Nottingham Forest – 58.06%
• Chelsea – 49.52%

Still just about favourites then, but the huge drop in chances between Newcastle and Forest will be alarming to the Forest manager, who will be desperate to reverse this run of form that has come at the worst possible time.

Pundits such as Ben Foster have predicted Forest to miss out on Champions League, but with the way the final four fixtures have fallen, a match that Espirito Santo’s side have no control over might actually decide their fate.

Newcastle United could decide Forest’s Champions League fate

Callum Hudson-Odoi picked up an injury against Brentford which will complicate the run-in but in truth, Forest should take some confidence in the games they have left to play.

Winnable fixtures against West Ham United and already-relegated Leicester City are sandwiched between two more difficult games, but even Crystal Palace should be one to pick up points in if the Forest squad are serious about Champions League football.

As Forest line up against Leicester, rivals Chelsea will be travelling to face Newcastle in a crunch fixture for Continental qualification.

With the two sides on equal points, if Forest can do their job and Newcastle topple Chelsea, Champions League qualification will be back in the Reds’ hands, the best-possible outcome ahead of the final day showdown.