Moment of truth looms for Evangelos Marinakis as ‘£40m’ Nottingham Forest ‘spike’ on the cards

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Evangelos Marinakis is a busy man at the moment, attempting to plan ahead with Nottingham Forest’s European fate remaining in the balance.

In preparation, Marinakis suspended his involvement in Forest so that the Reds and Olympiacos can both compete in UEFA competitions. This of course won’t impact his actual status as Forest owner.

The UEFA dilemma will also seep into the summer’s transfer business, as Forest’s Champions League hopes have slipped which will impact the budget.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
4	NewcastleNewcastle	35	19	6	10	66	45	21	63
5	ChelseaChelsea	35	18	9	8	62	41	21	63
6	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	35	18	7	10	54	42	12	61
7	Aston VillaAston Villa	35	17	9	9	55	49	6	60
8	B’mouthBournemouth	35	14	11	10	55	42	13	53

With Marinakis prioritising signing a striker in the summer, this budget needs to be clarified as soon as possible. So, Nottingham Forest News has spoken exclusively to a football finance expert to learn the impact that Forest’s European fate will have on the club’s bank balance.

How European football will impact Nottingham Forest’s finances

The club’s ambition is unquestionable as Forest target Bryan Mbeumo in the summer, but moves to improve Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad will come at a cost.

TBR Football’s head of football finance Adam Williams had this in mind when explaining to Nottingham Forest News the difference in prize money between the three UEFA competitions.

On Champions League qualification, Williams said: “Each club gets a flat £16m or so for taking part [in the Champions League], then that’s topped up by performance-related bonuses and contributions from the ‘value pillar’. Aston Villa, for example, were at about £60m in prize money after the league phase.

“I think we’re talking £45m for Forest in a worst-case scenario where they lose all eight league phase games. For context, that’s more than double what the club with the biggest revenue after the Europa League league phase earned.

“On top of that, you’ve got a retail spike, extra leverage from sponsors, the ability to charge premium prices on matchdays.”

It certainly sounds like a lucrative opportunity at the City Ground, but as things stand, Forest would qualify for the Europa League, which would have a damaging impact.

How the Europa League finances compare to the Champions League

On the pitch, Simon Jordan said Forest would prefer the Europa League but as Williams explained, the Forest owner is highly unlikely to share this view.

He continued: “For Forest, the difference between finishing in the Europa League and the Conference League is pretty negligible, but missing out on the Champions League is a huge drop-off.

“The new format means there has never been a more lucrative time to play in the Champions League.

“Forest would be hurt a little bit by their coefficient as they haven’t played in Europe for a long time. But that would be offset by the fact that English clubs get a proportionately greater share of UEFA’s central pot than other nations because of what our broadcaster contribute in TV money.

“I think the difference between the two competitions is probably £40m minimum, depending on variables in the season itself.”

It looks set to be an exciting transfer window for the Reds regardless, but Champions League qualification could unlock the possibilities for truly seismic investment in the Forest squad.