Nottingham Forest given big Champions League boost after Opta findings

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Nottingham Forest’s Champions League hopes have taken a hit in recent weeks.

One win in their last five Premier League games has seen Nuno Espirito Santo’s side slip out of the top five.

Position	Team	Played MP	Won W	Drawn D	Lost L	For GF	Against GA	Diff GD	Points Pts
3	Man CityManchester City	35	19	7	9	67	43	24	64
4	NewcastleNewcastle	35	19	6	10	66	45	21	63
5	ChelseaChelsea	35	18	9	8	62	41	21	63
6	Nottm ForestNottingham Forest	35	18	7	10	54	42	12	61
7	Aston VillaAston Villa	35	17	9	9	55	49	6	60
8	B’mouthBournemouth	35	14	11	10	55	42	13	53

However, the Reds’ hard-fought draw against Crystal Palace last time out could prove to be a vital point come the end of the season.

And it is their record against teams in the bottom half in general this term that provides hope that the Tricky Trees can still qualify for next season’s elite European competition.

Nottingham Forest’s excellent record against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League

According to Opta Analyst, Nottingham Forest have taken an average of 2.28 points against teams in the bottom half of the Premier League this season.

That places them fifth of all sides in the top flight, behind the current top four of Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Newcastle.

Welcoming 19^th-placed Leicester to the City Ground on Sunday, then, and with a trip to 17^th-placed West Ham to follow, hopefully Forest can pick up maximum points and turn up the pressure on the sides above them.

If they do, it will ensure the climax of the season is set up for a tantalising finish, Espirito Santo’s side welcoming Champions League rivals Chelsea to the City Ground in Matchweek 38.

Opta Analyst update their top five Premier League predictions

For much of this season, Opta have predicted Nottingham Forest will qualify for the Champions League thanks to their excellent form.

Having updated their data following Nottingham Forest’s draw against Crystal Palace, however, Opta’s Supercomputer now gives the Reds a 44.5% chance of a top-five finish.

By contrast, Opta gives Manchester City a 97.5% chance, Newcastle a 76.4% chance, and Chelsea a 66% chance, meaning they no longer believe Nottingham Forest will miss out.

After a season in which the club has played so well and featured in the top four most weeks, it would be a bitter blow to miss out at the very end.

The final few fixtures nonetheless provide hope that Forest can defy those odds in a race that is sure to go down to the very end.